Using report compiled on: 2020-06-30

Introduction

This automatically generated report captures the changes in one of our approaches to COVID modelling in Iowa. The team at the University of Iowa has provided a number of white-papers to the Iowa Department of Public Health, including:

  1. An assessment of the IHME model for IDPH: (link)
  2. Initia, Iowa-specific models, submitted April 20, 2020: (link)
  3. Clarifications of appropriate use of symptom onset data, submitted April 27, 2020 (link)
  4. Update on Iowa-specific model M2, submitted May 04, 2020: (link)

This specific report concerns model M2 from the April 20 and May 04 whitepapers, and is constructed using entirely public information. Given the sensitivity of these models to prior assumptions, and the data used, results may not preciesly concord with models used for other purposes or constructed under different conditions. The information presented here is intended to supplement, not replace, official guidance on COVID-19 from reputable public health organizations:

  1. IDPH
  2. CDC
  3. WHO

We’re also not the only group producing Iowa-specific forecasts. You may also be interested in the following projects:

  1. IHME
  2. Reich Lab

Reproductive Numbers

Interventions to control infectious diseases strive to drive the “reproductive number” below 1. While this quantity comes in many forms, and is derived in many ways for different models, in general it captures the number of secondary infections expected per infectious individual. When this number falls below 1, the spread of the disease is expected to slow and stop, while values greater than 1 indicate that the disease is likely to continue to spread exponentially until some other phenomenon interrupts transmission (additional interventions, natural behavioral changes, a lack of susceptible individuals).

The plot below provides the latest plot estimating our relationship to this threshold. Namely, it estimates the probability that the reproductive number has fallen below 1 at any point during the outbreak in Iowa, and provides a forecast

Mortality Projections

The models used here are trained on publicly available mortality data - as such, predicting mortality is one of their principal uses. In this document, we present the latest statewide projections, as well as a comparison to the official May-02 report to see how the predictions have evolved over time (where appropriate).

Latest Results

These results are based on the most recently available models (generally 1-2 days out of date)

Latest EA-RN information for Iowa

Latest Projected Mortality

Mortality: Latest
Date Observed Mortality) Predicted Mortality
2020-03-08 0 0 (0, 0)
2020-03-09 0 0 (0, 0)
2020-03-10 0 0 (0, 0)
2020-03-11 0 0 (0, 0)
2020-03-12 0 0 (0, 1)
2020-03-13 0 0 (0, 1)
2020-03-14 0 0 (0, 2)
2020-03-15 0 1 (0, 2)
2020-03-16 0 1 (0, 3)
2020-03-17 0 1 (0, 4)
2020-03-18 0 1 (0, 6)
2020-03-19 0 2 (1, 7)
2020-03-20 0 3 (1, 9)
2020-03-21 0 3 (1, 11)
2020-03-22 0 4 (1, 13)
2020-03-23 0 5 (2, 16)
2020-03-24 1 6 (2, 19)
2020-03-25 1 7 (2, 21)
2020-03-26 1 9 (3, 24)
2020-03-27 3 10 (3, 28)
2020-03-28 3 12 (4, 31)
2020-03-29 4 14 (5, 34)
2020-03-30 6 16 (6, 37)
2020-03-31 7 18 (7, 41)
2020-04-01 9 20 (8, 45)
2020-04-02 11 22 (9, 49)
2020-04-03 11 24 (10, 53)
2020-04-04 11 27 (11, 58)
2020-04-05 22 30 (12, 62)
2020-04-06 25 33 (14, 67)
2020-04-07 26 36 (16, 72)
2020-04-08 27 39 (17, 76)
2020-04-09 27 42 (19, 81)
2020-04-10 31 46 (20, 86)
2020-04-11 34 49 (22, 92)
2020-04-12 41 53 (25, 98)
2020-04-13 44 58 (27, 105)
2020-04-14 44 61 (30, 113)
2020-04-15 53 66 (33, 118)
2020-04-16 60 70 (35, 125)
2020-04-17 64 75 (37, 134)
2020-04-18 74 80 (40, 142)
2020-04-19 75 85 (44, 150)
2020-04-20 79 91 (48, 158)
2020-04-21 83 97 (52, 167)
2020-04-22 90 104 (56, 178)
2020-04-23 96 110 (60, 186)
2020-04-24 107 116 (64, 194)
2020-04-25 112 123 (69, 205)
2020-04-26 118 129 (74, 217)
2020-04-27 127 137 (79, 225)
2020-04-28 136 144 (84, 237)
2020-04-29 148 152 (89, 246)
2020-04-30 162 161 (94, 257)
2020-05-01 170 168 (100, 270)
2020-05-02 175 176 (107, 281)
2020-05-03 184 184 (114, 295)
2020-05-04 188 192 (121, 308)
2020-05-05 207 200 (126, 320)
2020-05-06 219 208 (134, 335)
2020-05-07 231 216 (142, 346)
2020-05-08 243 226 (148, 359)
2020-05-09 252 237 (157, 371)
2020-05-10 265 248 (163, 383)
2020-05-11 271 257 (172, 396)
2020-05-12 289 268 (180, 409)
2020-05-13 306 280 (185, 425)
2020-05-14 318 292 (197, 441)
2020-05-15 336 305 (203, 454)
2020-05-16 346 316 (210, 467)
2020-05-17 351 327 (217, 479)
2020-05-18 355 338 (224, 493)
2020-05-19 367 350 (236, 507)
2020-05-20 400 360 (245, 524)
2020-05-21 414 370 (251, 541)
2020-05-22 441 382 (258, 556)
2020-05-23 446 392 (266, 570)
2020-05-24 456 403 (274, 582)
2020-05-25 460 412 (283, 594)
2020-05-26 480 423 (288, 603)
2020-05-27 496 434 (295, 612)
2020-05-28 510 445 (301, 622)
2020-05-29 525 454 (306, 630)
2020-05-30 531 465 (311, 639)
2020-05-31 537 474 (318, 650)
2020-06-01 558 481 (323, 656)
2020-06-02 564 489 (327, 666)
2020-06-03 574 497 (331, 679)
2020-06-04 590 505 (334, 688)
2020-06-05 597 512 (337, 695)
2020-06-06 602 520 (341, 702)
2020-06-07 606 527 (349, 710)
2020-06-08 623 532 (356, 715)
2020-06-09 629 536 (360, 721)
2020-06-10 638 541 (366, 728)
2020-06-11 641 546 (370, 736)
2020-06-12 650 548 (374, 743)
2020-06-13 651 553 (378, 750)
2020-06-14 652 560 (383, 756)
2020-06-15 661 566 (388, 763)
2020-06-16 670 570 (394, 769)
2020-06-17 677 576 (399, 773)
2020-06-18 680 583 (405, 778)
2020-06-19 681 588 (407, 786)
2020-06-20 685 591 (407, 792)
2020-06-21 686 597 (414, 796)
2020-06-22 687 601 (417, 802)
2020-06-23 690 605 (419, 808)
2020-06-24 694 610 (422, 814)
2020-06-25 702 615 (426, 817)
2020-06-26 704 619 (429, 819)
2020-06-27 704 625 (432, 823)
2020-06-28 706 631 (435, 824)
2020-06-29 712 634 (436, 833)
2020-06-30 NA 640 (440, 838)
2020-07-01 NA 645 (444, 847)
2020-07-02 NA 649 (447, 851)
2020-07-03 NA 654 (448, 860)
2020-07-04 NA 658 (448, 865)
2020-07-05 NA 662 (449, 866)
2020-07-06 NA 664 (451, 869)
2020-07-07 NA 666 (453, 878)
2020-07-08 NA 670 (456, 885)
2020-07-09 NA 673 (457, 886)
2020-07-10 NA 674 (457, 893)
2020-07-11 NA 680 (461, 896)
2020-07-12 NA 683 (464, 899)
2020-07-13 NA 688 (465, 902)
2020-07-14 NA 691 (468, 904)
2020-07-15 NA 694 (470, 908)
2020-07-16 NA 696 (471, 911)
2020-07-17 NA 698 (471, 913)
2020-07-18 NA 699 (472, 918)
2020-07-19 NA 700 (472, 923)
2020-07-20 NA 701 (474, 929)
2020-07-21 NA 703 (478, 938)
2020-07-22 NA 707 (479, 943)
2020-07-23 NA 711 (480, 954)
2020-07-24 NA 714 (480, 963)
2020-07-25 NA 717 (481, 964)
2020-07-26 NA 717 (481, 970)
2020-07-27 NA 718 (482, 986)
2020-07-28 NA 720 (482, 989)
2020-07-29 NA 722 (484, 999)
2020-07-30 NA 723 (485, 1005)

Comparison to May 02 Report

These results are reproduced from the models included in the May 02 report using model M2. The mortality projections are compared to the subsequently reported counts.

Reproductive Number Projections

Comparison omitted - report date is past June 01 and comparison is not meaningful.

Mortality Projections

Comparison omitted - report date is past June 01 and comparison is not meaningful.